UFC Fight Night: Ode' Osbourne vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Main Card)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Cody Durden (43%) · Cody Durden at 52¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1

Ode' Osbourne49¢Cody Durden51¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cody Durden

Consensus Traders

Cody Durden 43%

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

-$13.9

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCody Durden at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cody Durden

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ode' Osbourne49%

Cody Durden52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cody Durden3 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares10,912

Combined PnL-$37.28

Ode' Osbourne4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,064

Combined PnL+$23.38

Cody Durden — 43%Ode' Osbourne — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH christianox	Cody Durdenavg 52¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$50	49% 54-56 (110)
C6 C63AMGCTR	Ode' Osbourneavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.5	73% 871-330 (1201)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Ode' Osbourneavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.3	54% 184-157 (341)
JO JohnnyWins	Cody Durdenavg 50¢	$407.82	$420.05	+$12.24	43% 122-162 (284)
PO PollyPepperoni<$100	Cody Durdenavg 51¢	$49.4	$49.88	+$0.48	54% 77-66 (143)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Ode' Osbourneavg 49.9¢	$46.46	$45.2	-$1.26	65% 1721-936 (2657)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Ode' Osbourneavg 48¢	$2.4	$5	-$0.16	48% 2424-2645 (5069)

christianox

Cody Durden

Invested

$5,200

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$50

Record

49%

54-56 (110)

C63AMGCTR

Ode' Osbourne

Invested

$1,199.97

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.5

Record

73%

871-330 (1201)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Ode' Osbourne

Invested

$1,181.19

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.3

Record

54%

184-157 (341)

JohnnyWins

Cody Durden

Invested

$407.82

Value

$420.05

PnL

+$12.24

Record

43%

122-162 (284)

PollyPepperoni<$100

Cody Durden

Invested

$49.4

Value

$49.88

PnL

+$0.48

Record

54%

77-66 (143)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Ode' Osbourne

Invested

$46.46

Value

$45.2

PnL

-$1.26

Record

65%

1721-936 (2657)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Ode' Osbourne

Invested

$2.4

Value

PnL

-$0.16

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Research grade

NeutralCody Durden at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Cody Durden

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cody Durden wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.