UFC Fight Night: Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli (Flyweight, Prelims)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Marcos Degli (60%) · Marcos Degli at 69¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Marcos Degli
5
Marcos Degli 60%
$9.1K
$21.5
68.2¢ → 68.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMarcos Degli at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Marcos Degli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI SineNooneEI | Marcos Degliavg 68.1¢ | $6.4K | $6.4K | +$140.03 | 53% 947-832 (1779) |
FK FKMYCTR | Mitch Raposoavg 33¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$113.4 | 63% 41-24 (65) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Marcos Degliavg 69.5¢ | $353.53 | $348.26 | -$5.28 | 50% 21456-21716 (43172) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Marcos Degliavg 68¢ | $19.89 | $20.04 | +$0.15 | 53% 2654-2333 (4987) |
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100 | Mitch Raposoavg 31¢ | $0.45 | $0.46 | +$0.01 | 50% 548-542 (1090) |
Invested
$6,357.24
Value
$6.4K
PnL
+$140.03
Record
53%
947-832 (1779)
Invested
$2,494.79
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$113.4
Record
63%
41-24 (65)
Invested
$353.53
Value
$348.26
PnL
-$5.28
Record
50%
21456-21716 (43172)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$19.89
Value
$20.04
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
2654-2333 (4987)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.46
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
548-542 (1090)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.