UFC 334: Kevin Holland vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Uroš Medic (100%) · Uroš Medic at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15
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Neutral
Uroš Medic
5
Uroš Medic 100%
$2.7K
$97.79
57¢ → 57.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUroš Medic at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Uroš Medicavg 57¢ | $2.2K | $2.0K | +$75.78 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
JE Jest55 | Uroš Medicavg 57¢ | $570 | $590 | +$20 | — 1-16 (17) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Uroš Medicavg 57.7¢ | $80.02 | $81.76 | +$1.73 | 61% 923-593 (1516) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Uroš Medicavg 58¢ | $10.32 | $10.5 | +$0.18 | 82% 23-5 (28) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Uroš Medicavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.95 | +$0.1 | 32% 282-611 (893) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,241.08
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$75.78
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$570
Value
$590
PnL
+$20
Record
—
1-16 (17)
Invested
$80.02
Value
$81.76
PnL
+$1.73
Record
61%
923-593 (1516)
Invested
$10.32
Value
$10.5
PnL
+$0.18
Record
82%
23-5 (28)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0.1
Record
32%
282-611 (893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.