UFC Fight Night: Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Prelims)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Keiichiro Nakamura (57%) · Keiichiro Nakamura at 77¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 8

Keiichiro Nakamura77¢Ollie Schmid23¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Keiichiro Nakamura

Consensus Traders

Keiichiro Nakamura 57%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

-$103.66

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 76.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKeiichiro Nakamura at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Keiichiro Nakamura

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Keiichiro Nakamura77%

Ollie Schmid24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Keiichiro Nakamura4 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares9,179

Combined PnL-$104.27

Ollie Schmid3 traders

Total Value$65.08

Total Shares278

Combined PnL+$0.62

Keiichiro Nakamura — 57%Ollie Schmid — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Keiichiro Nakamura. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKeiichiro Nakamura 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrKeiichiro Nakamura 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedKeiichiro Nakamura 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Keiichiro Nakamura 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Keiichiro Nakamuraavg 77.9¢	$5.4K	$5.3K	-$129.49	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
VeryLucky888	Keiichiro Nakamuraavg 75¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$20.64	58% 47408-34193 (81601)
DV dv-pm	Keiichiro Nakamuraavg 76.9¢	$608.21	$601.16	+$4.13	48% 3364-3589 (6953)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100	Ollie Schmidavg 23.2¢	$51.79	$52.46	+$0.67	50% 549-553 (1102)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Keiichiro Nakamuraavg 75¢	$22.5	$22.8	+$0.45	52% 8958-8128 (17086)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Ollie Schmidavg 23.1¢	$10	$9.95	+$0.16	53% 2679-2359 (5038)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Ollie Schmidavg 24.9¢	$2.9	$2.67	-$0.22	48% 1730-1861 (3591)

omnibus-076daa

Keiichiro Nakamura

Invested

$5,438.95

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$129.49

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

VeryLucky888

Keiichiro Nakamura

Invested

$1,046.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20.64

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

dv-pm

Keiichiro Nakamura

Invested

$608.21

Value

$601.16

PnL

+$4.13

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100

Ollie Schmid

Invested

$51.79

Value

$52.46

PnL

+$0.67

Record

50%

549-553 (1102)

ameisgoat11<$100

Keiichiro Nakamura

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.8

PnL

+$0.45

Record

52%

8958-8128 (17086)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Ollie Schmid

Invested

$10

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

2679-2359 (5038)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Ollie Schmid

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$0.22

Record

48%

1730-1861 (3591)

Research grade

NeutralKeiichiro Nakamura at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Keiichiro Nakamura

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Keiichiro Nakamura. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKeiichiro Nakamura 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrKeiichiro Nakamura 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedKeiichiro Nakamura 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Keiichiro Nakamura 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Keiichiro Nakamura wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.