UFC Fight Night: Karine Silva vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Karine Silva (80%) · Karine Silva at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Karine Silva
5
Karine Silva 80%
$1.2K
$58.99
63.8¢ → 67.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralKarine Silva at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Karine Silva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Karine Silvaavg 65.8¢ | $544.81 | $556.02 | +$11.2 | 58% 47221-34058 (81279) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Karine Silvaavg 63¢ | $315 | $337.5 | +$22.5 | 50% 21456-21716 (43172) |
0X 0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513 | Karine Silvaavg 61¢ | $246.93 | $273.25 | +$26.31 | 54% 326-278 (604) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Gabriella Fernandesavg 37.3¢ | $10 | $8.95 | -$1.05 | 53% 2654-2333 (4987) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Karine Silvaavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $3.38 | +$0.03 | 52% 8875-8058 (16933) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$544.81
Value
$556.02
PnL
+$11.2
Record
58%
47221-34058 (81279)
Invested
$315
Value
$337.5
PnL
+$22.5
Record
50%
21456-21716 (43172)
Invested
$246.93
Value
$273.25
PnL
+$26.31
Record
54%
326-278 (604)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$8.95
PnL
-$1.05
Record
53%
2654-2333 (4987)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.38
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
8875-8058 (16933)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.