UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. JeongYeong Lee (Featherweight, Prelims)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold JeongYeong Lee (50%) · JeongYeong Lee at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
JeongYeong Lee
4
JeongYeong Lee 50%
$3.0K
$0.74
59¢ → 59¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralJeongYeong Lee at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | JeongYeong Leeavg 59¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$0 | 89% 1652-202 (1854) |
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100 | Julian Erosaavg 41¢ | $36.24 | $36.24 | +$0 | 49% 267-273 (540) |
PO PollyPepperoni<$100 | JeongYeong Leeavg 59¢ | $11.05 | $11.05 | +$0.09 | 54% 77-66 (143) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Julian Erosaavg 37.2¢ | $7.45 | $8.1 | +$0.65 | 48% 2366-2607 (4973) |
elmcap2Invested
$2,950
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$0
Record
89%
1652-202 (1854)
Invested
$36.24
Value
$36.24
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
267-273 (540)
Invested
$11.05
Value
$11.05
PnL
+$0.09
Record
54%
77-66 (143)
Invested
$7.45
Value
$8.1
PnL
+$0.65
Record
48%
2366-2607 (4973)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.