UFC 334: Jared Gordon vs. Melquizael Costa (Lightweight, Early Prelims)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Melquizael Costa (67%) · Melquizael Costa at 77¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15

Jared Gordon24¢Melquizael Costa76¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Melquizael Costa

Consensus Traders

Melquizael Costa 67%

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$56.41

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 76.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMelquizael Costa at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Melquizael Costa

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jared Gordon24%

Melquizael Costa77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Melquizael Costa6 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares8,057

Combined PnL+$21.22

Jared Gordon3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares7,654

Combined PnL+$35.19

Melquizael Costa — 67%Jared Gordon — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Melquizael Costa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJared Gordon 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Melquizael Costa 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Melquizael Costaavg 76¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$30.03	— 2-2 (4)
0X 0xC14E1840aaAA56e12409585AD2c2a74c161339a5-1723944811003CTR	Jared Gordonavg 23¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$37.25	—
DA darkumbreon88	Melquizael Costaavg 76¢	$765.19	$765.19	-$0	61% 1043-661 (1704)
OM omnibus-076daa	Melquizael Costaavg 77¢	$541.69	$534.66	-$7.03	46% 499-596 (1095)
4d9a879611D994FD9B56	Melquizael Costaavg 77¢	$231	$229.5	-$1.5	33% 8-16 (24)
leflaiveCTR<$100	Jared Gordonavg 24¢	$48	$46	-$2	48% 19-21 (40)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Melquizael Costaavg 77.2¢	$24.16	$23.8	-$0.36	62% 216-130 (346)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Melquizael Costaavg 76.4¢	$11.8	$6.84	+$0.09	41% 702-1012 (1714)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Jared Gordonavg 24¢	$1.29	$1.24	-$0.05	37% 991-1715 (2706)

elmcap2

Melquizael Costa

Invested

$4,565.02

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$30.03

Record

—

2-2 (4)

0xC14E1840aaAA56e12409585AD2c2a74c161339a5-1723944811003CTR

Jared Gordon

Invested

$1,713.27

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$37.25

Record

—

darkumbreon88

Melquizael Costa

Invested

$765.19

Value

$765.19

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

1043-661 (1704)

omnibus-076daa

Melquizael Costa

Invested

$541.69

Value

$534.66

PnL

-$7.03

Record

46%

499-596 (1095)

4d9a879611D994FD9B56

Melquizael Costa

Invested

$231

Value

$229.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

33%

8-16 (24)

leflaiveCTR<$100

Jared Gordon

Invested

$48

Value

$46

PnL

-$2

Record

48%

19-21 (40)

thatsabing0<$100

Melquizael Costa

Invested

$24.16

Value

$23.8

PnL

-$0.36

Record

62%

216-130 (346)

ameisgoat11<$100

Melquizael Costa

Invested

$11.8

Value

$6.84

PnL

+$0.09

Record

41%

702-1012 (1714)

VenusianCTR<$100

Jared Gordon

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

Research grade

NeutralMelquizael Costa at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Melquizael Costa

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Melquizael Costa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJared Gordon 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Melquizael Costa 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Melquizael Costa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.