Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Evan Elder, while the market favors Samuel Sanches (53%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
UFC 334: Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches (Lightweight, Early Prelims)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Evan Elder (20%) · Evan Elder at 48¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Evan Elder
5
Evan Elder 20%
$7.4K
-$0.43
Research grade
NeutralEvan Elder at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Samuel Sanches 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Evan Elder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO JohnnyWinsCTR | Evan Elderavg 48.7¢ | $4.2K | $4.1K | -$56.77 | 0% 0-68 (68) |
 8DDD | Samuel Sanchesavg 52¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$14.03 | 6% 2-30 (32) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Samuel Sanchesavg 51¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$27.67 | 40% 241-361 (602) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Samuel Sanchesavg 50¢ | $364.89 | $379.49 | +$14.6 | 54% 514-436 (950) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Samuel Sanchesavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.6 | +$0.05 | 26% 185-522 (707) |
Invested
$4,169.85
Value
$4.1K
PnL
-$56.77
Record
0%
0-68 (68)
8DDDInvested
$1,458.64
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.03
Record
6%
2-30 (32)
Invested
$1,411.02
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$27.67
Record
40%
241-361 (602)
Invested
$364.89
Value
$379.49
PnL
+$14.6
Record
54%
514-436 (950)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.05
Record
26%
185-522 (707)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.