UFC 334: Drew Dober vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Chris Duncan (67%) · Chris Duncan at 63¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 15

Drew Dober38¢Chris Duncan62¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chris Duncan

Consensus Traders

Chris Duncan 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.8K

Combined PnL

$137.59

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 62.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralChris Duncan at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chris Duncan

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Drew Dober38%

Chris Duncan63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chris Duncan6 traders

Total Value$24.6K

Total Shares39,256

Combined PnL+$312.59

Drew Dober3 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares35,000

Combined PnL-$175

Chris Duncan — 67%Drew Dober — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Chris Duncan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperDrew Dober 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrChris Duncan 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedChris Duncan 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Chris Duncan 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IS isp	Chris Duncanavg 62¢	$18.2K	$18.4K	+$146.91	—
DR dribblingbanana69CTR	Drew Doberavg 38¢	$7.6K	$7.5K	-$100	— 3-2 (5)
elmcap2	Chris Duncanavg 62¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$75	— 1-2 (3)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Drew Doberavg 38¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$40	2% 12-511 (523)
8DDDCTR	Drew Doberavg 38¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$35	14% 5-32 (37)
DA darkumbreon88ARB<$100	Drew Doberavg 39.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$20.74	62% 1023-638 (1661)
└ Drew Dober leg	Drew Doberavg 39.2¢	$628.22	$609.19	-$19.03
└ Chris Duncan leg	Chris Duncanavg 58¢	$461.36	$501.13	+$39.77
VeryLucky888	Chris Duncanavg 60.4¢	$1.5K	$919.46	+$59.31	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
OM omnibus-076daa	Chris Duncanavg 59.1¢	$476.28	$507.65	+$31.37	45% 441-538 (979)
IN insidero<$100	Chris Duncanavg 63¢	$63	$63	+$0	5% 2-40 (42)
SU suntori<$100	Chris Duncanavg 63¢	$5.71	$5.71	+$0	46% 2333-2789 (5122)

isp

Chris Duncan

Invested

$18,216.58

Value

$18.4K

PnL

+$146.91

Record

—

dribblingbanana69CTR

Drew Dober

Invested

$7,600

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$100

Record

—

3-2 (5)

elmcap2

Chris Duncan

Invested

$4,649.99

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$75

Record

—

1-2 (3)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Drew Dober

Invested

$3,040

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$40

Record

12-511 (523)

8DDDCTR

Drew Dober

Invested

$2,660

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$35

Record

14%

5-32 (37)

darkumbreon88ARB<$100

Drew Dober

Invested

$1,089.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20.74

Record

62%

1023-638 (1661)

Both legs:

Drew Dober$628.2239.2¢-$19.03

Chris Duncan$461.3658¢+$39.77

VeryLucky888

Chris Duncan

Invested

$1,509.45

Value

$919.46

PnL

+$59.31

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

omnibus-076daa

Chris Duncan

Invested

$476.28

Value

$507.65

PnL

+$31.37

Record

45%

441-538 (979)

insidero<$100

Chris Duncan

Invested

$63

Value

$63

PnL

+$0

Record

2-40 (42)

suntori<$100

Chris Duncan

Invested

$5.71

Value

$5.71

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

Research grade

NeutralChris Duncan at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chris Duncan

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Chris Duncan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperDrew Dober 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrChris Duncan 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedChris Duncan 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Chris Duncan 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chris Duncan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.