UFC Fight Night: Dakota Hope vs. Francis Marshall (Featherweight, Main Card)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Francis Marshall (100%) · Francis Marshall at 67¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Francis Marshall
5
Francis Marshall 100%
$4.1K
$23.12
66.5¢ → 66.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralFrancis Marshall at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Francis Marshallavg 67.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$28.2 | 49% 18981-19394 (38375) |
 VeryLucky888 | Francis Marshallavg 66¢ | $3.8K | $1.6K | +$51.3 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
PO PollyPepperoni | Francis Marshallavg 66¢ | $739.43 | $739.43 | -$0 | 54% 76-66 (142) |
C6 C63AMG<$100 | Francis Marshallavg 66¢ | $9.9 | $9.9 | +$0.08 | 73% 864-326 (1190) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Francis Marshallavg 66.9¢ | $8.66 | $8.61 | -$0.05 | 47% 2258-2548 (4806) |
Invested
$1,795.8
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$28.2
Record
49%
18981-19394 (38375)
VeryLucky888Invested
$3,756.9
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$51.3
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$739.43
Value
$739.43
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
76-66 (142)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$0.08
Record
73%
864-326 (1190)
Invested
$8.66
Value
$8.61
PnL
-$0.05
Record
47%
2258-2548 (4806)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.