UFC 334: Caio Borralho vs. Yousri Belgaroui (Middleweight, Main Card)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Caio Borralho (80%) · Caio Borralho at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Caio Borralho
5
Caio Borralho 80%
$3.4K
$66.27
57.4¢ → 58.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCaio Borralho at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Caio Borralho. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Caio Borralhoavg 57.2¢ | $3.0K | $2.9K | +$67.35 | 51% 299-291 (590) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yousri Belgarouiavg 41¢ | $193.17 | $195.52 | +$2.36 | 42% 574-809 (1383) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Caio Borralhoavg 59¢ | $133.26 | $131 | -$2.26 | 39% 233-357 (590) |
 KnureKnume | Caio Borralhoavg 58.6¢ | $117.23 | $116 | -$1.23 | 1% 1-83 (84) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Caio Borralhoavg 57¢ | $4.9 | $4.95 | +$0.05 | 26% 180-518 (698) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$3,022.59
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$67.35
Record
51%
299-291 (590)
Invested
$193.17
Value
$195.52
PnL
+$2.36
Record
42%
574-809 (1383)
Invested
$133.26
Value
$131
PnL
-$2.26
Record
39%
233-357 (590)
KnureKnumeInvested
$117.23
Value
$116
PnL
-$1.23
Record
1%
1-83 (84)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
26%
180-518 (698)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.