UFC Fight Night: Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lucas Fernando (100%) · Lucas Fernando at 74¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Lucas Fernando
5
Lucas Fernando 100%
$3.7K
$29.63
72.4¢ → 73.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralLucas Fernando at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
30h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Lucas Fernando. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Lucas Fernandoavg 72.7¢ | $3.0K | $3.1K | +$13.32 | 58% 47031-33914 (80945) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Lucas Fernandoavg 70.7¢ | $422.39 | $436.34 | +$10.97 | 50% 21340-21623 (42963) |
TH THEdirkdiggler | Lucas Fernandoavg 73¢ | $201.85 | $201.82 | +$4.15 | 50% 299-299 (598) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Lucas Fernandoavg 71.2¢ | $21.35 | $21.9 | +$0.55 | 52% 8836-8034 (16870) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Lucas Fernandoavg 69¢ | $10 | $10.58 | +$0.65 | 53% 2616-2309 (4925) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$3,046.2
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$13.32
Record
58%
47031-33914 (80945)
Invested
$422.39
Value
$436.34
PnL
+$10.97
Record
50%
21340-21623 (42963)
Invested
$201.85
Value
$201.82
PnL
+$4.15
Record
50%
299-299 (598)
Invested
$21.35
Value
$21.9
PnL
+$0.55
Record
52%
8836-8034 (16870)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.58
PnL
+$0.65
Record
53%
2616-2309 (4925)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.