Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

O/U 3.5 Rounds

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$652.43

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 50¢

-9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$586.78

Total Shares2,201

Combined PnL-$627.63

Over4 traders

Total Value$804.64

Total Shares1,766

Combined PnL-$24.81

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO tomb2456	Underavg 55¢	$1.1K	$521.5	-$626.66	57% 44-33 (77)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Overavg 44.6¢	$493.24	$499.3	+$6.07	48% 416-456 (872)
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.6¢	$333.91	$329.42	-$4.49
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.5¢	$159.32	$169.88	+$10.56
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 49¢	$488.52	$468.58	-$19.94	46% 577-678 (1255)
IC ic4cream	Overavg 43¢	$242.95	$240.13	-$2.82	8% 42-467 (509)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Overavg 48¢	$93.17	$91.23	-$1.94	35% 129-237 (366)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 55¢	$28.2	$28.73	+$0.52	51% 1007-981 (1988)
HY hydra1248<$100	Underavg 53¢	$29.11	$27.46	-$1.65	76% 212-68 (280)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 52¢	$7.6	$7.65	+$0.05	42% 775-1070 (1845)
SI SineNooneEI<$100	Overavg 48¢	$4.8	$4.7	-$0.1	54% 639-536 (1175)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 51¢	$8.09	$1.44	+$0.1	54% 1714-1481 (3195)

tomb2456

Under

Invested

$1,148.15

Value

$521.5

PnL

-$626.66

Record

57%

44-33 (77)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$493.24

Value

$499.3

PnL

+$6.07

Record

48%

416-456 (872)

Both legs:

Over$333.9144.6¢-$4.49

Under$159.3252.5¢+$10.56

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$488.52

Value

$468.58

PnL

-$19.94

Record

46%

577-678 (1255)

ic4cream

Over

Invested

$242.95

Value

$240.13

PnL

-$2.82

Record

42-467 (509)

Oddstorm<$100

Over

Invested

$93.17

Value

$91.23

PnL

-$1.94

Record

35%

129-237 (366)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$28.2

Value

$28.73

PnL

+$0.52

Record

51%

1007-981 (1988)

hydra1248<$100

Under

Invested

$29.11

Value

$27.46

PnL

-$1.65

Record

76%

212-68 (280)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

775-1070 (1845)

SineNooneEI<$100

Over

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

639-536 (1175)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$8.09

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.