UFC 334: Alatengheili vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Diaz (30%) · Juan Diaz at 81¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 15

Alatengheili20¢Juan Diaz80¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juan Diaz

Consensus Traders

Juan Diaz 30%

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

$118.28

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 80.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuan Diaz at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Diaz

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alatengheili20%

Juan Diaz81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Diaz3 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares11,885

Combined PnL+$178.97

Alatengheili7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares10,675

Combined PnL-$60.69

Juan Diaz — 30%Alatengheili — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Juan Diaz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlatengheili 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlatengheili 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Alatengheili 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SineNooneEI	Juan Diazavg 78.9¢	$9.0K	$9.1K	+$176.29	55% 637-530 (1167)
0X 0xC14E1840aaAA56e12409585AD2c2a74c161339a5-1723944811003CTR	Alatengheiliavg 21¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$2.58	—
nigiri99CTR	Alatengheiliavg 20¢	$902.8	$880.23	-$22.57	51% 568-535 (1103)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Juan Diazavg 80¢	$406.71	$409.25	+$2.54	25% 346-1024 (1370)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Alatengheiliavg 20¢	$123.3	$120.22	-$3.08	46% 497-591 (1088)
VE VenusianCTR	Alatengheiliavg 20¢	$98.87	$104.07	+$5.2	37% 968-1674 (2642)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Juan Diazavg 78¢	$11.09	$11.22	+$0.13	63% 214-128 (342)
VeryLucky888CTR	Alatengheiliavg 20.6¢	$1.6K	$8.02	-$42.25	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Alatengheiliavg 23¢	$4.11	$3.57	-$0.54	37% 977-1669 (2646)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Alatengheiliavg 21¢	$0.53	$0.51	-$0.03	22% 179-619 (798)

SineNooneEI

Juan Diaz

Invested

$8,970.43

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$176.29

Record

55%

637-530 (1167)

0xC14E1840aaAA56e12409585AD2c2a74c161339a5-1723944811003CTR

Alatengheili

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$2.58

Record

—

nigiri99CTR

Alatengheili

Invested

$902.8

Value

$880.23

PnL

-$22.57

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Juan Diaz

Invested

$406.71

Value

$409.25

PnL

+$2.54

Record

25%

346-1024 (1370)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Alatengheili

Invested

$123.3

Value

$120.22

PnL

-$3.08

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

VenusianCTR

Alatengheili

Invested

$98.87

Value

$104.07

PnL

+$5.2

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

thatsabing0<$100

Juan Diaz

Invested

$11.09

Value

$11.22

PnL

+$0.13

Record

63%

214-128 (342)

VeryLucky888CTR

Alatengheili

Invested

$1,592.65

Value

$8.02

PnL

-$42.25

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Alatengheili

Invested

$4.11

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$0.54

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

hi774cCTR<$100

Alatengheili

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0.03

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

Research grade

NeutralJuan Diaz at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Diaz

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Juan Diaz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlatengheili 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlatengheili 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Alatengheili 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juan Diaz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.