SC União Torreense vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 58¢ · $625 held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$624.73
$-1.5K
41.4¢ → 58¢
+40% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 41.6¢ | $2.1K | $604.79 | $-1.5K | 53% 61382-53692 (115074) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Overavg 59.2¢ | $12.05 | $8.54 | -$3.5 | 66% 24276-12373 (36649) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 31¢ | $3 | $4.06 | +$1.06 | 50% 25834-25541 (51375) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 33.1¢ | $2.65 | $3.36 | +$0.71 | 53% 1437-1278 (2715) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Overavg 60.2¢ | $4.82 | $3.36 | -$1.46 | 82% 7344-1620 (8964) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 3¢ | $0.62 | $0.62 | +$0 | 47% 11734-13452 (25186) |
RN1Invested
$2,097.81
Value
$604.79
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
53%
61382-53692 (115074)
Invested
$12.05
Value
$8.54
PnL
-$3.5
Record
66%
24276-12373 (36649)
Invested
$3
Value
$4.06
PnL
+$1.06
Record
50%
25834-25541 (51375)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$3.36
PnL
+$0.71
Record
53%
1437-1278 (2715)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$4.82
Value
$3.36
PnL
-$1.46
Record
82%
7344-1620 (8964)
Invested
$0.62
Value
$0.62
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
11734-13452 (25186)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.