Exact Score: Villarreal CF 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$1.3K
-$297.83
94.5¢ → 94.8¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.5¢ | $669.06 | $669.06 | +$0 | 50% 35607-35082 (70689) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $1.6K | $427.52 | -$292.22 | 48% 14393-15903 (30296) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 5.7¢ | $130.3 | $125.51 | -$4.79 | 54% 906-787 (1693) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $25.69 | $24.53 | -$0.22 | 49% 3261-3353 (6614) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $9.68 | $9.24 | -$0.44 | 56% 942-736 (1678) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $3.46 | $3.3 | -$0.16 | 53% 916-813 (1729) |
Invested
$669.06
Value
$669.06
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
35607-35082 (70689)
Invested
$1,641.42
Value
$427.52
PnL
-$292.22
Record
48%
14393-15903 (30296)
Invested
$130.3
Value
$125.51
PnL
-$4.79
Record
54%
906-787 (1693)
Invested
$25.69
Value
$24.53
PnL
-$0.22
Record
49%
3261-3353 (6614)
Invested
$9.68
Value
$9.24
PnL
-$0.44
Record
56%
942-736 (1678)
Invested
$3.46
Value
$3.3
PnL
-$0.16
Record
53%
916-813 (1729)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.