Manchester United FC vs. AS Roma: AS Roma O/U 2.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 80¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Over20¢Under80¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$7.56

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 80¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over20%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,817

Combined PnL+$9.85

Over4 traders

Total Value$84.52

Total Shares423

Combined PnL-$2.29

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 79.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$5.61	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 79.1¢	$86.9	$77.83	+$1.15	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 20.8¢	$75.42	$72.52	-$2.9	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 77¢	$63.43	$65.9	+$3.3	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 81.8¢	$9.81	$9.6	-$0.21	53% 916-813 (1729)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 18.7¢	$5.62	$6	+$0.38	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 18.7¢	$3	$3.2	+$0.2	48% 6154-6562 (12716)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 19.8¢	$2.77	$2.8	+$0.03	50% 7347-7479 (14826)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$1,294.82

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$5.61

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$86.9

Value

$77.83

PnL

+$1.15

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$75.42

Value

$72.52

PnL

-$2.9

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$63.43

Value

$65.9

PnL

+$3.3

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$9.81

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.62

Value

PnL

+$0.38

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

6154-6562 (12716)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.77

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

7347-7479 (14826)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.