Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 66¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.0K
-$44.24
68.2¢ → 65.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 68.8¢ | $2.1K | $1.9K | -$114.08 | 58% 39913-28822 (68735) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 31.4¢ | $604.56 | $672.99 | +$68.44 | 51% 12449-11898 (24347) |
P1 P1kaso | Noavg 65¢ | $373.62 | $373.62 | +$0 | 63% 734-426 (1160) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $27.86 | $27.86 | +$0 | 63% 1036-599 (1635) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $18.35 | $19.75 | +$1.4 | 54% 2345-1973 (4318) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,072.86
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$114.08
Record
58%
39913-28822 (68735)
Invested
$604.56
Value
$672.99
PnL
+$68.44
Record
51%
12449-11898 (24347)
Invested
$373.62
Value
$373.62
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
734-426 (1160)
Invested
$27.86
Value
$27.86
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
1036-599 (1635)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$18.35
Value
$19.75
PnL
+$1.4
Record
54%
2345-1973 (4318)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.