Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-03?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$3.5K
$4.91
58.6¢ → 58.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360 | Noavg 58.7¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$7.61 | 46% 135-158 (293) |
P1 P1kasoCTR | Yesavg 40.5¢ | $404.12 | $424.06 | +$19.95 | 63% 754-450 (1204) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 58¢ | $397.87 | $397.87 | -$3.43 | 73% 6697-2416 (9113) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 59¢ | $112.61 | $111.61 | -$3.52 | 53% 15980-14158 (30138) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11 | $10.9 | -$0.09 | 50% 680-675 (1355) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $22.96 | $10.84 | -$0.3 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $7.77 | $7.68 | -$0.09 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
Invested
$2,500
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$7.61
Record
46%
135-158 (293)
Invested
$404.12
Value
$424.06
PnL
+$19.95
Record
63%
754-450 (1204)
Invested
$397.87
Value
$397.87
PnL
-$3.43
Record
73%
6697-2416 (9113)
Invested
$112.61
Value
$111.61
PnL
-$3.52
Record
53%
15980-14158 (30138)
Invested
$11
Value
$10.9
PnL
-$0.09
Record
50%
680-675 (1355)
Invested
$22.96
Value
$10.84
PnL
-$0.3
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.77
Value
$7.68
PnL
-$0.09
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.