Will Manchester United FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 76¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$4.1K
$14.27
75.4¢ → 75.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 75.5¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$1.46 | 72% 6934-2737 (9671) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 75¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$15.15 | 58% 43585-31701 (75286) |
SM SmallFishGamblerCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 46% 21-25 (46) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $49.19 | $49.84 | +$0.66 | 57% 17226-12892 (30118) |
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $3.8 | -$0.08 | 59% 68-47 (115) |
Invested
$2,386.71
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$1.46
Record
72%
6934-2737 (9671)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,143.68
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$15.15
Record
58%
43585-31701 (75286)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
21-25 (46)
Invested
$49.19
Value
$49.84
PnL
+$0.66
Record
57%
17226-12892 (30118)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$3.8
PnL
-$0.08
Record
59%
68-47 (115)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.