Fenerbahçe SK vs. AS Roma: O/U 5.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 96¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.1K
$484.82
94.2¢ → 95.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 96.8¢ | $591.13 | $584.5 | -$6.63 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
 RN1 | Underavg 90.9¢ | $438.59 | $443.12 | +$468.53 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100 | Overavg 4.2¢ | $63.05 | $65.83 | +$2.78 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 91¢ | $40.51 | $13.6 | +$0.54 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 90.8¢ | $198.86 | $11.46 | +$19.6 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
Invested
$591.13
Value
$584.5
PnL
-$6.63
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
RN1Invested
$438.59
Value
$443.12
PnL
+$468.53
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$63.05
Value
$65.83
PnL
+$2.78
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$40.51
Value
$13.6
PnL
+$0.54
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$198.86
Value
$11.46
PnL
+$19.6
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.