Fenerbahçe SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 0.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 4

Over98¢Under2¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$85.17

Smart Money Entry

97.1¢ → 97.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over98%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,048

Combined PnL+$10.65

Under5 traders

Total Value$480.53

Total Shares16,570

Combined PnL+$74.51

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 97¢	$685.67	$689.09	+$3.43	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 97.5¢	$663.99	$663.95	-$0.03	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 96.8¢	$590.48	$594.75	+$4.27	56% 7896-6221 (14117)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 97.2¢	$569.72	$570.38	+$0.65	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 2.4¢	$358.42	$434.09	+$75.68	49% 14327-15003 (29330)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 96.4¢	$226.43	$228.77	+$2.34	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
SE sentrio	Overavg 97.5¢	$226.53	$226.53	+$0	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 2.7¢	$20.38	$21.6	+$1.23	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$20.68	$19.72	-$0.96	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$5.7	$3.66	-$1.57	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 2.6¢	$1.31	$1.45	+$0.14	54% 1193-1031 (2224)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$685.67

Value

$689.09

PnL

+$3.43

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$663.99

Value

$663.95

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$590.48

Value

$594.75

PnL

+$4.27

Record

56%

7896-6221 (14117)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$569.72

Value

$570.38

PnL

+$0.65

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$358.42

Value

$434.09

PnL

+$75.68

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$226.43

Value

$228.77

PnL

+$2.34

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$226.53

Value

$226.53

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.38

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$1.23

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.68

Value

$19.72

PnL

-$0.96

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.7

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$1.57

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.14

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.