Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-04?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 38¢ · $601 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$601.4
-$10.06
38.2¢ → 37.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 39.4¢ | $313.42 | $298.2 | -$15.23 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Noavg 37¢ | $254.19 | $257.62 | +$3.43 | 72% 6833-2629 (9462) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $25.51 | $25.86 | +$0.34 | 53% 16124-14290 (30414) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $13.44 | $14.89 | +$1.45 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $3 | $2.95 | -$0.05 | 59% 66-45 (111) |
HY hydra1248<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $1.9 | $1.88 | -$0.02 | 58% 14-10 (24) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$313.42
Value
$298.2
PnL
-$15.23
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$254.19
Value
$257.62
PnL
+$3.43
Record
72%
6833-2629 (9462)
Invested
$25.51
Value
$25.86
PnL
+$0.34
Record
53%
16124-14290 (30414)
Invested
$13.44
Value
$14.89
PnL
+$1.45
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Invested
$3
Value
$2.95
PnL
-$0.05
Record
59%
66-45 (111)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.88
PnL
-$0.02
Record
58%
14-10 (24)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.