Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-11-03?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 79¢ · $925 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$924.7
-$3.65
79¢ → 78.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 79¢ | $804.01 | $794.01 | -$4.91 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $46 | $46 | +$0.29 | 65% 1753-960 (2713) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $41.37 | $42.36 | +$0.99 | 72% 6826-2619 (9445) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 79.8¢ | $24.82 | $24.26 | -$0.41 | 53% 2247-1977 (4224) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 21.1¢ | $13.91 | $18.07 | +$0.38 | 53% 5577-5013 (10590) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$804.01
Value
$794.01
PnL
-$4.91
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$46
Value
$46
PnL
+$0.29
Record
65%
1753-960 (2713)
Invested
$41.37
Value
$42.36
PnL
+$0.99
Record
72%
6826-2619 (9445)
Invested
$24.82
Value
$24.26
PnL
-$0.41
Record
53%
2247-1977 (4224)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.91
Value
$18.07
PnL
+$0.38
Record
53%
5577-5013 (10590)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.