Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Real Betis Balompié (89%) · Real Betis Balompié at 67¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund34¢Real Betis Balompié66¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Real Betis Balompié

Consensus Traders

Real Betis Balompié 89%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$13.47

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 66.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralReal Betis Balompié at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Real Betis Balompié

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund34%

Real Betis Balompié67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Real Betis Balompié8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,679

Combined PnL-$13.46

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund1 trader

Total Value$6.52

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$0.02

Real Betis Balompié — 89%BV Borussia 09 Dortmund — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Real Betis Balompié. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleReal Betis Balompié 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrReal Betis Balompié 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedReal Betis Balompié 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Real Betis Balompié 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Real Betis Balompiéavg 66.5¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$14.36	58% 44906-32675 (77581)
38 38791873984189	Real Betis Balompiéavg 66¢	$199.32	$141.6	+$1.75	48% 57267-60865 (118132)
CA Cannae	Real Betis Balompiéavg 66.3¢	$111.58	$111.08	-$0.5	53% 16454-14621 (31075)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Real Betis Balompiéavg 66.8¢	$78.08	$77.14	-$0.94	50% 27494-27393 (54887)
GH ghorrock<$100	Real Betis Balompiéavg 66.5¢	$55.11	$55.64	+$0.53	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
nigiri99<$100	Real Betis Balompiéavg 67¢	$18.76	$18.48	+$0	46% 8334-9729 (18063)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 33.1¢	$6.53	$6.52	-$0.02	53% 1098-984 (2082)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Real Betis Balompiéavg 66¢	$4.4	$4.4	+$0.07	64% 1876-1042 (2918)
SE sentrio<$100	Real Betis Balompiéavg 66¢	$3.77	$3.77	+$0	50% 25333-25054 (50387)

VeryLucky888

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$2,061.72

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$14.36

Record

58%

44906-32675 (77581)

38791873984189

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$199.32

Value

$141.6

PnL

+$1.75

Record

48%

57267-60865 (118132)

Cannae

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$111.58

Value

$111.08

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

16454-14621 (31075)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$78.08

Value

$77.14

PnL

-$0.94

Record

50%

27494-27393 (54887)

ghorrock<$100

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$55.11

Value

$55.64

PnL

+$0.53

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

nigiri99<$100

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$18.76

Value

$18.48

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

8334-9729 (18063)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

Invested

$6.53

Value

$6.52

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

1098-984 (2082)

darkumbreon88<$100

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.07

Record

64%

1876-1042 (2918)

sentrio<$100

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$3.77

Value

$3.77

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25333-25054 (50387)

Research grade

NeutralReal Betis Balompié at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Real Betis Balompié

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Real Betis Balompié. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleReal Betis Balompié 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrReal Betis Balompié 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedReal Betis Balompié 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Real Betis Balompié 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Real Betis Balompié wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.