Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-11-03?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$1.9K
$1.35
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 69.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$45.7 | 73% 6739-2446 (9185) |
MA Marios15tCTR | Yesavg 32.4¢ | $650 | $650 | +$42.44 | 49% 94-98 (192) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $19.89 | $21.47 | +$2.98 | 53% 16036-14210 (30246) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $13.33 | $13.93 | +$0.6 | 53% 5014-4502 (9516) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.6¢ | $11.49 | $12.03 | +$1.03 | 53% 2222-1951 (4173) |
Invested
$1,258.4
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$45.7
Record
73%
6739-2446 (9185)
Invested
$650
Value
$650
PnL
+$42.44
Record
49%
94-98 (192)
Invested
$19.89
Value
$21.47
PnL
+$2.98
Record
53%
16036-14210 (30246)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.33
Value
$13.93
PnL
+$0.6
Record
53%
5014-4502 (9516)
Invested
$11.49
Value
$12.03
PnL
+$1.03
Record
53%
2222-1951 (4173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.