Will AEK win on 2026-11-04?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$39.4K
-$659.55
91¢ → 90.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taroooooo | Noavg 91¢ | $40.0K | $39.4K | -$660 | 63% 148-86 (234) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 89.3¢ | $73.91 | $25.51 | +$0.69 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $25.53 | $25.11 | -$0.42 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $12.3 | $12.42 | +$0.11 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $1.25 | $1.32 | +$0.07 | 53% 16124-14290 (30414) |
TarooooooInvested
$40,040
Value
$39.4K
PnL
-$660
Record
63%
148-86 (234)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$73.91
Value
$25.51
PnL
+$0.69
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$25.53
Value
$25.11
PnL
-$0.42
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.3
Value
$12.42
PnL
+$0.11
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.32
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
16124-14290 (30414)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.