UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.7K
$115.78
90.3¢ → 95.8¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Late
4436h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Porx | Noavg 94.4¢ | $1.1K | $608.14 | +$27.02 | 66% 1478-767 (2245) |
 MisTKy | Noavg 84¢ | $420 | $479.75 | +$59.75 | 71% 567-235 (802) |
 archaic | Noavg 92.9¢ | $411.95 | $420.91 | +$8.96 | 85% 1904-339 (2243) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 88¢ | $214.8 | $234.2 | +$18.79 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 vinii<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $2 | $3.25 | +$1.26 | 74% 2789-1002 (3791) |
PorxInvested
$1,116.03
Value
$608.14
PnL
+$27.02
Record
66%
1478-767 (2245)
MisTKyInvested
$420
Value
$479.75
PnL
+$59.75
Record
71%
567-235 (802)
archaicInvested
$411.95
Value
$420.91
PnL
+$8.96
Record
85%
1904-339 (2243)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$214.8
Value
$234.2
PnL
+$18.79
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
vinii<$100Invested
$2
Value
$3.25
PnL
+$1.26
Record
74%
2789-1002 (3791)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.