Tusk out by December 31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.6K
$94.13
87.5¢ → 93.5¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Moond | Noavg 92¢ | $576.13 | $582.39 | +$6.26 | 69% 1137-513 (1650) |
 BloodyMummer | Noavg 87¢ | $543.94 | $581.53 | +$40.71 | 77% 557-165 (722) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 79.1¢ | $237.27 | $279 | +$38.73 | 53% 1839-1622 (3461) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $66.38 | $74.47 | +$8.09 | 42% 5218-7151 (12369) |
 archaic<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $63.07 | $63.41 | +$0.34 | 85% 1882-338 (2220) |
MoondInvested
$576.13
Value
$582.39
PnL
+$6.26
Record
69%
1137-513 (1650)
BloodyMummerInvested
$543.94
Value
$581.53
PnL
+$40.71
Record
77%
557-165 (722)
StarMasterInvested
$237.27
Value
$279
PnL
+$38.73
Record
53%
1839-1622 (3461)
Invested
$66.38
Value
$74.47
PnL
+$8.09
Record
42%
5218-7151 (12369)
archaic<$100Invested
$63.07
Value
$63.41
PnL
+$0.34
Record
85%
1882-338 (2220)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.