Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 2.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 14

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Wed, Oct 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$199.17

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 62.5¢

+16% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,471

Combined PnL+$205.89

Over2 traders

Total Value$23.99

Total Shares64

Combined PnL-$6.72

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IA ianf2026	Underavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$217.95	49% 92-96 (188)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 64.4¢	$266.18	$279.88	-$12.06	48% 8915-9527 (18442)
RE retarbCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$25.4	$19.85	-$5.56	48% 4251-4539 (8790)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$5.3	$4.14	-$1.16	55% 8411-6763 (15174)

ianf2026

Under

Invested

$1,079.36

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$217.95

Record

49%

92-96 (188)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$266.18

Value

$279.88

PnL

-$12.06

Record

48%

8915-9527 (18442)

retarbCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.4

Value

$19.85

PnL

-$5.56

Record

48%

4251-4539 (8790)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.3

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$1.16

Record

55%

8411-6763 (15174)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.