Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor end in a draw?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 40¢ · $117 held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$116.76
-$28.94
70.4¢ → 40¢
-43% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 71.5¢ | $49.35 | $59.59 | +$7.97 | 58% 51717-37608 (89325) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $72.2 | $41.24 | -$30.96 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $23.84 | $15.94 | -$5.95 | 49% 14981-15890 (30871) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.