Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (96%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Igdir FK vs. Antalyaspor: O/U 1.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 4.0¢ · $42 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 100%
$41.65
$95.9
57.7¢ → 4¢
-93% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 63¢ | $568.89 | $36.12 | +$121.91 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 8.8¢ | $9.13 | $4.13 | -$5 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $22.4 | $1.4 | -$21 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.