Will Igdir FK win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 92¢ · $481 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$480.82
$62.76
68.3¢ → 92¢
+35% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 65¢ | $235.16 | $379.22 | +$144.06 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $57.96 | $57.96 | +$0 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $22.75 | $32.2 | +$9.45 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 71.5¢ | $102.19 | $11.44 | -$90.75 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
Invested
$235.16
Value
$379.22
PnL
+$144.06
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$57.96
Value
$57.96
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$22.75
Value
$32.2
PnL
+$9.45
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$102.19
Value
$11.44
PnL
-$90.75
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.