Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 89¢ · $687 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$687.22
$23.67
79.9¢ → 88.8¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 81.6¢ | $503.23 | $521.48 | +$18.25 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $73 | $77 | +$4 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $47.12 | $47.12 | +$0 | 63% 1792-1071 (2863) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $26.75 | $28.61 | +$1.86 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 73.8¢ | $7.02 | $7.33 | +$0.31 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.6¢ | $4.92 | $4.33 | -$0.59 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $1.36 | -$0.15 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
Invested
$503.23
Value
$521.48
PnL
+$18.25
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$73
Value
$77
PnL
+$4
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
Invested
$47.12
Value
$47.12
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
1792-1071 (2863)
poshposh<$100Invested
$26.75
Value
$28.61
PnL
+$1.86
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$7.33
PnL
+$0.31
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.33
PnL
-$0.59
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.36
PnL
-$0.15
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.