Will Ankara Keciorengucu win on 2026-10-30?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 57¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$28.76
63.9¢ → 57¢
-11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 63.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$29.35 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $891.04 | $935.21 | +$44.17 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $550 | $533.27 | -$16.73 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56¢ | $341.04 | $401.94 | +$60.9 | |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $3.96 | $3.96 | +$0 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 76.2¢ | $4.19 | $3.63 | -$0.56 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $2.25 | $3.4 | +$1.15 | 54% 6194-5243 (11437) |
Invested
$1,208
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$29.35
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$891.04
Value
$935.21
PnL
+$44.17
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Both legs:
Invested
$3.96
Value
$3.96
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.19
Value
$3.63
PnL
-$0.56
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$1.15
Record
54%
6194-5243 (11437)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.