Will Esenler Erokspor win on 2026-10-30?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 72¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$2.0K
$126.34
53¢ → 72¢
+36% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 54.3¢ | $904.14 | $1.2K | +$285.35 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 43.3¢ | $523.73 | $354.43 | -$169.3 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 32¢ | $303.45 | $270.26 | -$33.19 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 39.7¢ | $79.71 | $107.6 | +$27.89 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $12.64 | $20.08 | +$7.44 | 54% 6194-5243 (11437) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $7.02 | $14.76 | +$7.74 | 59% 9935-6911 (16846) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 54.2¢ | $3.74 | $4.16 | +$0.42 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $3.57 | -$0.03 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
Invested
$904.14
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$285.35
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$523.73
Value
$354.43
PnL
-$169.3
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$303.45
Value
$270.26
PnL
-$33.19
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$79.71
Value
$107.6
PnL
+$27.89
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
Invested
$12.64
Value
$20.08
PnL
+$7.44
Record
54%
6194-5243 (11437)
poshposh<$100Invested
$7.02
Value
$14.76
PnL
+$7.74
Record
59%
9935-6911 (16846)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.74
Value
$4.16
PnL
+$0.42
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.57
PnL
-$0.03
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.