Will Bursaspor win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 100¢ · $705 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$704.65
-$19.13
68.3¢ → 99.5¢
+46% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fraj0la | Yesavg 68¢ | $503.18 | $695.57 | -$7.4 | 64% 230-132 (362) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 98.4¢ | $7.67 | $7.51 | -$0.16 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $0.78 | $0.85 | +$0.08 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $11 | $0.65 | -$10.35 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $1.36 | $0.06 | -$1.3 | 59% 10176-7169 (17345) |
fraj0laInvested
$503.18
Value
$695.57
PnL
-$7.4
Record
64%
230-132 (362)
Invested
$7.67
Value
$7.51
PnL
-$0.16
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.78
Value
$0.85
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$11
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$10.35
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.36
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$1.3
Record
59%
10176-7169 (17345)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.