Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-11-01?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 24¢ · $450 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$449.88
$15.92
24¢ → 23.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 23.3¢ | $218.69 | $229.65 | +$10.96 | 53% 15998-14180 (30178) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 24.8¢ | $128.89 | $127.12 | -$1.77 | 50% 33515-33076 (66591) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 24.4¢ | $70.5 | $67.97 | -$2.53 | 59% 46056-32360 (78416) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 23.7¢ | $67.03 | $16.09 | +$0.17 | 51% 6018-5720 (11738) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 26.8¢ | $5.35 | $4.8 | -$0.25 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 25.6¢ | $142.2 | $4.25 | +$9.34 | 58% 42088-30563 (72651) |
Invested
$218.69
Value
$229.65
PnL
+$10.96
Record
53%
15998-14180 (30178)
Invested
$128.89
Value
$127.12
PnL
-$1.77
Record
50%
33515-33076 (66591)
Invested
$70.5
Value
$67.97
PnL
-$2.53
Record
59%
46056-32360 (78416)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$67.03
Value
$16.09
PnL
+$0.17
Record
51%
6018-5720 (11738)
Invested
$5.35
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$142.2
Value
$4.25
PnL
+$9.34
Record
58%
42088-30563 (72651)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.