Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 5.5

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 83¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1

Over18¢Under82¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$4.07

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 82.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$594.18

Total Shares719

Combined PnL-$4.78

Over1 trader

Total Value$6.23

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0.71

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Overavg 18¢	$599.94	$599.94	+$10.82	59% 46876-33139 (80015)
└ Over leg	Overavg 18¢	$389.61	$389.61	+$10.82
└ Under leg	Underavg 82¢	$210.33	$210.33	+$0
0xheavy888	Underavg 83.6¢	$433.96	$428.18	-$5.78	55% 7313-5881 (13194)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 82¢	$164	$166	+$1	54% 4942-4170 (9112)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 15.9¢	$5.52	$6.23	+$0.71	53% 5597-5025 (10622)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$599.94

Value

$599.94

PnL

+$10.82

Record

59%

46876-33139 (80015)

Both legs:

Over$389.6118¢+$10.82

Under$210.3382¢+$0

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$433.96

Value

$428.18

PnL

-$5.78

Record

55%

7313-5881 (13194)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$164

Value

$166

PnL

+$1

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.52

Value

$6.23

PnL

+$0.71

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.