Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 4.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 67¢ · $432 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 67%
$431.65
-$4.8
68¢ → 67¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 68.5¢ | $273.99 | $267.99 | -$6 | 55% 7313-5881 (13194) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Underavg 67¢ | $133.99 | $133.99 | +$1 | 54% 4942-4170 (9112) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 32.6¢ | $29.46 | $29.66 | +$0.2 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.