Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 3.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 54¢ · $52K held · ends Nov 1

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$52.4K

Combined PnL

-$86.39

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 53.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$30.9K

Total Shares57,869

Combined PnL-$356.16

Under9 traders

Total Value$21.1K

Total Shares45,356

Combined PnL+$269.76

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NB nb1985	Overavg 54.1¢	$30.0K	$29.7K	-$344.12	51% 25-24 (49)
RN1CTR	Underavg 45.6¢	$11.1K	$11.3K	+$215.36	54% 57141-49402 (106543)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 46.4¢	$6.9K	$6.9K	+$19.04	50% 25644-25471 (51115)
us391	Overavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$11.71	51% 1711-1674 (3385)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.39	50% 33838-33423 (67261)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$1.8K	$573.32	+$11.93	58% 42662-31048 (73710)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Underavg 45.4¢	$526.09	$538.89	+$12.79	54% 4942-4170 (9112)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 47.4¢	$400.54	$396.97	-$3.57	59% 46876-33139 (80015)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.4¢	$253.73	$248.78	-$4.95
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$146.81	$148.2	+$1.39
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$288.48	$294.49	+$6.01	57% 29224-21607 (50831)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 47.1¢	$219.7	$221.35	+$1.65	55% 7313-5881 (13194)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$67.95	$70.22	+$2.27	48% 8937-9552 (18489)
BE berlinskies<$100	Overavg 53¢	$34.99	$34.66	-$0.33	58% 5887-4316 (10203)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$31.02	$31.35	+$0.33	53% 5597-5025 (10622)

nb1985

Over

Invested

$30,000

Value

$29.7K

PnL

-$344.12

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$11,110.82

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$215.36

Record

54%

57141-49402 (106543)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$6,877

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$19.04

Record

50%

25644-25471 (51115)

us391

Over

Invested

$1,256.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$11.71

Record

51%

1711-1674 (3385)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$1,157.93

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0.39

Record

50%

33838-33423 (67261)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,798.48

Value

$573.32

PnL

+$11.93

Record

58%

42662-31048 (73710)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Under

Invested

$526.09

Value

$538.89

PnL

+$12.79

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$400.54

Value

$396.97

PnL

-$3.57

Record

59%

46876-33139 (80015)

Both legs:

Under$253.7347.4¢-$4.95

Over$146.8153¢+$1.39

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$288.48

Value

$294.49

PnL

+$6.01

Record

57%

29224-21607 (50831)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$219.7

Value

$221.35

PnL

+$1.65

Record

55%

7313-5881 (13194)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.95

Value

$70.22

PnL

+$2.27

Record

48%

8937-9552 (18489)

berlinskies<$100

Over

Invested

$34.99

Value

$34.66

PnL

-$0.33

Record

58%

5887-4316 (10203)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.02

Value

$31.35

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.