Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 1.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$1.4K
-$295.86
85.6¢ → 100¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 85¢ | $983.58 | $926.93 | -$56.65 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
FO foooool | Overavg 83.2¢ | $346.97 | $334.11 | -$12.85 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 poshposh | Overavg 97¢ | $128.01 | $129.99 | +$1.98 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $11.13 | $10.2 | -$0.93 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 86¢ | $4.3 | $4.3 | +$0.05 | 52% 7499-6786 (14285) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $1.95 | $1.65 | -$0.3 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $1.04 | $0.88 | -$0.16 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 15.8¢ | $227.72 | $0.72 | -$227 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
Invested
$983.58
Value
$926.93
PnL
-$56.65
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$346.97
Value
$334.11
PnL
-$12.85
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
poshposhInvested
$128.01
Value
$129.99
PnL
+$1.98
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$11.13
Value
$10.2
PnL
-$0.93
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.3
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
7499-6786 (14285)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.65
PnL
-$0.3
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.88
PnL
-$0.16
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$227.72
Value
$0.72
PnL
-$227
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.