Spread: Trabzonspor (-2.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Gaziantep FK (80%) · Gaziantep FK at 70¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Trabzonspor30¢Gaziantep FK70¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gaziantep FK

Consensus Traders

Gaziantep FK 80%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$58.38

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 70¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGaziantep FK at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gaziantep FK

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trabzonspor30%

Gaziantep FK70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gaziantep FK4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,872

Combined PnL+$58.17

Trabzonspor1 trader

Total Value$2.85

Total Shares8

Combined PnL+$0.21

Gaziantep FK — 80%Trabzonspor — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Gaziantep FKavg 64.9¢	$778.85	$827.98	+$49.13	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
VeryLucky888	Gaziantep FKavg 62.3¢	$401.69	$412.74	+$11.05	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Gaziantep FKavg 68¢	$13.6	$12.8	-$0.8	52% 7499-6786 (14285)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Gaziantep FKavg 80¢	$6.06	$4.85	-$1.21	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Trabzonsporavg 34.3¢	$2.64	$2.85	+$0.21	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

0xheavy888

Gaziantep FK

Invested

$778.85

Value

$827.98

PnL

+$49.13

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

VeryLucky888

Gaziantep FK

Invested

$401.69

Value

$412.74

PnL

+$11.05

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

ameisgoat11<$100

Gaziantep FK

Invested

$13.6

Value

$12.8

PnL

-$0.8

Record

52%

7499-6786 (14285)

LuckyLoo<$100

Gaziantep FK

Invested

$6.06

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$1.21

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Trabzonspor

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

NeutralGaziantep FK at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Gaziantep FK

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gaziantep FK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.