Spread: Trabzonspor (-1.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Trabzonspor (36%) · Trabzonspor at 89¢ · $51K held · ended Nov 1

Trabzonspor89¢Gaziantep FK11¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Trabzonspor

Consensus Traders

Trabzonspor 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.7K

Combined PnL

$596.65

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 88.5¢

+50% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTrabzonspor at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trabzonspor

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trabzonspor89%

Gaziantep FK12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trabzonspor4 traders

Total Value$41.9K

Total Shares72,736

Combined PnL-$658.41

Gaziantep FK7 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares25,003

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Trabzonspor — 36%Gaziantep FK — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Trabzonspor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrabzonspor 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrGaziantep FK 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedGaziantep FK 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Gaziantep FK 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NB nb1985	Trabzonsporavg 59¢	$42.3K	$41.6K	-$699.39	51% 25-24 (49)
ZH zhuz632CTR	Gaziantep FKavg 41¢	$1.6K	$2.5K	+$906.2	50% 246-244 (490)
RN1CTR	Gaziantep FKavg 41¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$117.61	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Gaziantep FKavg 41.7¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$194.09	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Gaziantep FKavg 41.2¢	$642.15	$983.54	+$341.39	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
└ Trabzonspor leg	Trabzonsporavg 55.2¢	$479.44	$729.29	+$249.86
└ Gaziantep FK leg	Gaziantep FKavg 41.2¢	$655.33	$254.25	+$91.54
VeryLucky888CTR	Gaziantep FKavg 44.1¢	$500.39	$384	+$135.69	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
AC acorp	Trabzonsporavg 48.7¢	$192.89	$277.7	+$84.81	49% 624-641 (1265)
0xheavy888CTR	Gaziantep FKavg 41¢	$164	$168	+$4	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
HRTradingCTR	Gaziantep FKavg 41¢	$175.08	$72.6	-$102.48	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Trabzonsporavg 58¢	$98.25	$54.21	-$44.04	53% 2247-1977 (4224)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Trabzonsporavg 86¢	$19.54	$19.77	+$0.23	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Gaziantep FKavg 43¢	$2.15	$3.2	-$0.05	52% 7499-6786 (14285)

nb1985

Trabzonspor

Invested

$42,271.59

Value

$41.6K

PnL

-$699.39

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

zhuz632CTR

Gaziantep FK

Invested

$1,615.4

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$906.2

Record

50%

246-244 (490)

RN1CTR

Gaziantep FK

Invested

$2,233.16

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$117.61

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

UpTheBluesCTR

Gaziantep FK

Invested

$2,146.91

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$194.09

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Gaziantep FK

Invested

$642.15

Value

$983.54

PnL

+$341.39

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Both legs:

Trabzonspor$479.4455.2¢+$249.86

Gaziantep FK$655.3341.2¢+$91.54

VeryLucky888CTR

Gaziantep FK

Invested

$500.39

Value

$384

PnL

+$135.69

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

acorp

Trabzonspor

Invested

$192.89

Value

$277.7

PnL

+$84.81

Record

49%

624-641 (1265)

0xheavy888CTR

Gaziantep FK

Invested

$164

Value

$168

PnL

+$4

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

HRTradingCTR

Gaziantep FK

Invested

$175.08

Value

$72.6

PnL

-$102.48

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Trabzonspor

Invested

$98.25

Value

$54.21

PnL

-$44.04

Record

53%

2247-1977 (4224)

topdogbigboi<$100

Trabzonspor

Invested

$19.54

Value

$19.77

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Gaziantep FK

Invested

$2.15

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

7499-6786 (14285)

Research grade

NeutralTrabzonspor at 89%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trabzonspor

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Trabzonspor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrabzonspor 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrGaziantep FK 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedGaziantep FK 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Gaziantep FK 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trabzonspor wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.