Will Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK end in a draw?
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 99¢ · $828 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 55%
$827.76
-$43.3
90.9¢ → 99.3¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool | Noavg 87¢ | $393.14 | $397.6 | +$4.45 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 97.5¢ | $265.78 | $268.55 | +$2.77 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $41.76 | $42.24 | -$0.24 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $37.6 | $39.12 | +$1.18 | 74% 1680-593 (2273) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.7¢ | $45.75 | $30.56 | -$17.64 | 57% 1814-1366 (3180) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $60.16 | $25.92 | -$34.24 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $15.6 | $16.09 | +$0.49 | 76% 4143-1304 (5447) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $6.69 | $6.73 | +$0.04 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $0.7 | $0.6 | -$0.13 | 52% 7499-6786 (14285) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.24 | $0.25 | +$0 | 50% 33839-33425 (67264) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.1 | $0.11 | +$0.01 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
Invested
$393.14
Value
$397.6
PnL
+$4.45
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Invested
$265.78
Value
$268.55
PnL
+$2.77
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$41.76
Value
$42.24
PnL
-$0.24
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
Invested
$37.6
Value
$39.12
PnL
+$1.18
Record
74%
1680-593 (2273)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$45.75
Value
$30.56
PnL
-$17.64
Record
57%
1814-1366 (3180)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$60.16
Value
$25.92
PnL
-$34.24
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$16.09
PnL
+$0.49
Record
76%
4143-1304 (5447)
Invested
$6.69
Value
$6.73
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$0.13
Record
52%
7499-6786 (14285)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.25
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
33839-33425 (67264)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.11
PnL
+$0.01
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.