Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: Both Teams to Score
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 16¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 63%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$15.94
51.3¢ → 16¢
-69% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888CTR | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $542.55 | $418 | -$124.55 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 49.4¢ | $211.27 | $293.18 | +$81.91 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 49.4¢ | $174.15 | $158.52 | -$15.62 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.4¢ | $124.84 | $111.21 | -$13.62 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58.4¢ | $49.31 | $47.31 | -$2 | |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 42.6¢ | $55.06 | $85.96 | +$23.14 | 50% 33839-33425 (67264) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $65.79 | $85.67 | +$0.76 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $33.56 | $37.64 | +$1.88 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $24.74 | $23.1 | -$1.65 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $15.6 | $17.6 | +$2 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.03 | $1.59 | +$0.56 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$542.55
Value
$418
PnL
-$124.55
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
Invested
$211.27
Value
$293.18
PnL
+$81.91
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$174.15
Value
$158.52
PnL
-$15.62
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.06
Value
$85.96
PnL
+$23.14
Record
50%
33839-33425 (67264)
Invested
$65.79
Value
$85.67
PnL
+$0.76
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$33.56
Value
$37.64
PnL
+$1.88
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Invested
$24.74
Value
$23.1
PnL
-$1.65
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$17.6
PnL
+$2
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.03
Value
$1.59
PnL
+$0.56
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.