Konyaspor vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 4.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 72¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$1.9K
$0.02
71.8¢ → 71.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 69¢ | $654.47 | $658.17 | +$3.7 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 29.7¢ | $596.2 | $613.92 | +$17.72 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 80.5¢ | $379.49 | $267.54 | -$38.05 | 55% 7057-5659 (12716) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 28¢ | $145.44 | $159.17 | +$13.73 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 78.3¢ | $184.13 | $108.3 | -$13.99 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $78.71 | $97.62 | +$18.91 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $8.25 | $6.76 | -$1.49 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 79¢ | $3.95 | $3.45 | -$0.5 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
Invested
$654.47
Value
$658.17
PnL
+$3.7
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$596.2
Value
$613.92
PnL
+$17.72
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
0xheavy888Invested
$379.49
Value
$267.54
PnL
-$38.05
Record
55%
7057-5659 (12716)
RN1CTRInvested
$145.44
Value
$159.17
PnL
+$13.73
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
VeryLucky888Invested
$184.13
Value
$108.3
PnL
-$13.99
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$78.71
Value
$97.62
PnL
+$18.91
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$8.25
Value
$6.76
PnL
-$1.49
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$0.5
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.