Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Konyaspor vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5

4 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (27%) · Under at 50¢ · $35K held · ended Oct 30

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.9K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 50¢

-19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 15 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares32,650

Combined PnL+$191.49

Over11 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares28,796

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Under — 27%Over — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Underavg 61.9¢	$20.1K	$20.3K	+$195.48	50% 145-144 (289)
RN1	Overavg 44.6¢	$5.7K	$6.4K	+$682.98	54% 56317-48476 (104793)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 51¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$75.71	48% 762-822 (1584)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 40.4¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$428.59	50% 24855-24561 (49416)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 51¢	$672.18	$665.59	-$6.59	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Overavg 38¢	$608	$632	+$24	54% 4856-4082 (8938)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 38.3¢	$704.51	$537.74	+$18.99	58% 41497-30120 (71617)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 42.3¢	$403.31	$518.09	+$114.77	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
heyboy800	Overavg 57.8¢	$325.18	$295.57	-$29.61	61% 913-578 (1491)
FO foooool	Overavg 49.1¢	$255.22	$259.71	+$4.48	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
HRTrading	Overavg 38¢	$121.72	$177.65	+$55.93	52% 3999-3641 (7640)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 38¢	$91.17	$101.5	+$10.33	58% 28416-20976 (49392)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38¢	$53.96	$71	+$17.04
└ Under leg	Underavg 61¢	$37.21	$30.5	-$6.71
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 38¢	$38	$39.5	+$1.5	38% 3197-5208 (8405)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 42.3¢	$42.3	$39	-$3.3	47% 4525-5012 (9537)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 48¢	$12.96	$12.83	-$0.14	59% 45379-31733 (77112)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 61¢	$3.05	$2.5	-$0.55	47% 2262-2550 (4812)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Under

Invested

$20,128.1

Value

$20.3K

PnL

+$195.48

Record

50%

145-144 (289)

RN1

Over

Invested

$5,676.61

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$682.98

Record

54%

56317-48476 (104793)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$2,574.1

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$75.71

Record

48%

762-822 (1584)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,856.31

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$428.59

Record

50%

24855-24561 (49416)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$672.18

Value

$665.59

PnL

-$6.59

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Over

Invested

$608

Value

$632

PnL

+$24

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$704.51

Value

$537.74

PnL

+$18.99

Record

58%

41497-30120 (71617)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$403.31

Value

$518.09

PnL

+$114.77

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

heyboy800

Over

Invested

$325.18

Value

$295.57

PnL

-$29.61

Record

61%

913-578 (1491)

foooool

Over

Invested

$255.22

Value

$259.71

PnL

+$4.48

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

HRTrading

Over

Invested

$121.72

Value

$177.65

PnL

+$55.93

Record

52%

3999-3641 (7640)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$91.17

Value

$101.5

PnL

+$10.33

Record

58%

28416-20976 (49392)

Both legs:

Invested

$38

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

38%

3197-5208 (8405)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$42.3

Value

$39

PnL

-$3.3

Record

47%

4525-5012 (9537)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$12.96

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$0.14

Record

59%

45379-31733 (77112)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$3.05

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.55

Record

47%

2262-2550 (4812)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 15 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.