Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Galatasaray SK, while the market favors Konyaspor (53%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-2.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Galatasaray SK (60%) · Galatasaray SK at 47¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Galatasaray SK
5
Galatasaray SK 60%
$1.7K
-$431.25
47.3¢ → 47¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralGalatasaray SK at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Konyaspor 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Galatasaray SKavg 47.2¢ | $2.0K | $1.6K | -$434.54 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Konyasporavg 80¢ | $44.9 | $44.9 | +$0 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Konyasporavg 48.3¢ | $28.51 | $37.17 | +$8.66 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Galatasaray SKavg 57¢ | $19.3 | $12.53 | -$6.77 | 53% 2145-1905 (4050) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Galatasaray SKavg 17¢ | $1.19 | $2.59 | +$1.4 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
Invested
$2,028.23
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$434.54
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$44.9
Value
$44.9
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$28.51
Value
$37.17
PnL
+$8.66
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$19.3
Value
$12.53
PnL
-$6.77
Record
53%
2145-1905 (4050)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$2.59
PnL
+$1.4
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.