Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Konyaspor, while the market favors Galatasaray SK (56%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Konyaspor (60%) · Konyaspor at 45¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 30

Galatasaray SK56¢Konyaspor44¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Konyaspor

Consensus Traders

Konyaspor 60%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 44.5¢

-28% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralKonyaspor at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Konyaspor

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Galatasaray SK 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Galatasaray SK56%

Konyaspor45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Galatasaray SK4 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares5,996

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Konyaspor6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,228

Combined PnL+$20.84

Galatasaray SK — 40%Konyaspor — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Galatasaray SKavg 42.8¢	$2.2K	$3.2K	+$1.0K	50% 24855-24561 (49416)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Konyasporavg 62¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$20.58	50% 145-144 (289)
VeryLucky888	Galatasaray SKavg 37¢	$270.95	$234	+$12.79	58% 41497-30120 (71617)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Galatasaray SKavg 37¢	$55.13	$87.91	+$32.78	58% 28416-20976 (49392)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Galatasaray SKavg 37.9¢	$31.8	$30.2	-$1.59	53% 2145-1905 (4050)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Konyasporavg 63¢	$15.41	$15.61	+$0.2	55% 7053-5658 (12711)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Konyasporavg 65¢	$12.87	$12.47	+$0	52% 3999-3641 (7640)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Konyasporavg 54¢	$10.53	$11.11	+$0.58	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Konyasporavg 39¢	$10.92	$10.5	-$0.42	59% 45379-31733 (77112)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Konyasporavg 64¢	$5.1	$5	-$0.1	47% 2262-2550 (4812)

GoalLineGhost

Galatasaray SK

Invested

$2,210.17

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

50%

24855-24561 (49416)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Konyaspor

Invested

$2,551.32

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$20.58

Record

50%

145-144 (289)

VeryLucky888

Galatasaray SK

Invested

$270.95

Value

$234

PnL

+$12.79

Record

58%

41497-30120 (71617)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Galatasaray SK

Invested

$55.13

Value

$87.91

PnL

+$32.78

Record

58%

28416-20976 (49392)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Galatasaray SK

Invested

$31.8

Value

$30.2

PnL

-$1.59

Record

53%

2145-1905 (4050)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Konyaspor

Invested

$15.41

Value

$15.61

PnL

+$0.2

Record

55%

7053-5658 (12711)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Konyaspor

Invested

$12.87

Value

$12.47

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

3999-3641 (7640)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Konyaspor

Invested

$10.53

Value

$11.11

PnL

+$0.58

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Konyaspor

Invested

$10.92

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$0.42

Record

59%

45379-31733 (77112)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Konyaspor

Invested

$5.1

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

2262-2550 (4812)

Research grade

NeutralKonyaspor at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Konyaspor

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Galatasaray SK 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Konyaspor wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.